The US Navy uses modern computational tools to predict acoustic transmission loss (TL) in ocean environments for a variety of purposes. Although the computational tools are numerically quite good, the boundary conditions and physical properties of the ocean environments of interest are typically uncertain so the resulting TL predictions are also uncertain. Common means for quantifying predicted-TL uncertainty – such as Monte-Carlo calculations – are too computationally burdensome for use in real time. The goal of this project is to develop and refine approximate TL-uncertainty-quantification techniques that are fast enough to be used in real time. Current results involving the area-statistics method have achieved engineering level-accuracy in 90% of TL-uncertainty test cases in shallow ocean environments with a computational speed-up of more than a million compared to Monte-Carlo calculations. A post-doctoral level researcher is needed to further develop and test such TL-uncertainty quantification techniques, and facilitate their transition to the US Navy. United States citizenship is required.

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